National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States

The first U.S. National Assessment of the PotentialConsequences of Climate Variability and Change for theUnited States is being conducted under the auspices of theU.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). TheUSGCRP was established through the Global ChangeResearch Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606) and mandatedthrough the statute with the responsibility to undertakeperiodic scientific assessments of the potentialconsequences of global change for the United States. Thegoal of the National Assessment is to analyze andevaluate what is known about the potential consequencesof climate variability and change for the nation in thecontext of other pressures on the public, the environment,and the nation\u27s resources. The conduct of the nationalassessment process will involve a broad spectrum ofstakeholders from state, local, tribal, and Federalgovernments; business; labor; academia; non-profitorganizations; and the general public. The assessmentwill link research by scientists to specific needs of thestakeholders, and will provide planners, managers,organizations, and the public with the information neededto increase resilience to climate variability and cope withclimate change. The national assessment will becomprised of three components: (1) National synthesis,(2) Sectoral analyses (agriculture, forestry, waterresources, human health, and the coastal zone), and(3) Regional analyses. To facilitate comparison,integration, and synthesis of each of the assessmentcomponents, all regional, sectoral, and synthesis analyseswill use a common set of scenarios for climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions. Specific responsibilities have been defined for oversight of the components of the national assessment and forcoordination activities. A National Assessment SynthesisTeam (NAST) will provide overall intellectual oversightof the national assessment process and has responsibilityfor the development of the Synthesis Report. A NationalAssessment Working Group under the auspices of theUSGCRP has lead responsibility for organizing andsponsoring the sectoral analyses and oversight andcoordination responsibilities for regional analyses. ANational Assessment Coordination Office has beenestablished to facilitate coordination of the entire nationalassessment process. The National Assessment SynthesisReport is targeted for completion by January 1, 2000, andis intended to satisfy the mandate for an assessmentdefined in P.L. 101-606 and serve as part of the U.S.contribution to the IPCC Third Assessment Report

Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States

Rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 are predicted to occur over the next century. Simple, well-validated models of ecosystem function are required to predict the effects of these changes. This paper describes an improved version of a forest carbon and water balance model (PnET-II) and the application of the model to predict stand- and regional-level effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. PnET-II is a simple, generalized, monthly time-step model of water and carbon balances (gross and net) driven by nitrogen availability as expressed through foliar N concentration. Improvements from the original model include a complete carbon balance and improvements in the prediction of canopy phenology, as well as in the computation of canopy structure and photosynthesis. The model was parameterized and run for 4 forest/site combinations and validated against available data for water yield, gross and net carbon exchange and biomass production. The validation exercise suggests that the determination of actual water availability to stands and the occurrence or non-occurrence of soil-based water stress are critical to accurate modeling of forest net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP). The model was then run for the entire NewEngland/New York (USA) region using a 1 km resolution geographic information system. Predicted long-term NEP ranged from -85 to +275 g C m-2 yr-1 for the 4 forest/site combinations, and from -150 to 350 g C m-2 yr-1 for the region, with a regional average of 76 g C m-2 yr-1. A combination of increased temperature (+6*C), decreased precipitation (-15%) and increased water use efficiency (2x, due to doubling of CO2) resulted generally in increases in NPP and decreases in water yield over the region

Oligocene-Miocene biostratigraphy, magnetostratigraphy, and isotopic stratigraphy of the western North Atlantic

Magnetostratigraphic records from western North Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Sites 563 and 558 are correlated with the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS; Berggren et aI., 1984a, 1984b) using marine magnetic anomalies and selected biostratigraphic datum levels. The magnetochronology established is used to make direct magnetobiostratigraphic correlations that agree with previous Oligocene-early Miocene studies. However, we show that Zones NN8 partim and NN9 and associated Epoch 11 correlate with Magnetic Anomaly 5 (= Chron C5n). This contrasts with previous indirect correlations of Epoch 11 with Anomaly 5A and requires an upward adjustment of 1.5-2.0 m.y. for middle-late Miocene calcareous nannofossil zones. We correlate the middle/late Miocene boundary with Zone NN8 and earliest Chron C5n (10.4 Ma)

Remote Sensing for Landslide Investigations: An Overview of Recent Achievements and Perspectives

Landslides represent major natural hazards, which cause every year significant loss of lives and damages to buildings, properties and lifelines. In the last decades, a significant increase in landslide frequency took place, in concomitance to climate change and the expansion of urbanized areas. Remote sensing techniques represent a powerful tool for landslide investigation: applications are traditionally divided into three main classes, although this subdivision has some limitations and borders are sometimes fuzzy. The first class comprehends techniques for landslide recognition, i.e., the mapping of past or active slope failures. The second regards landslide monitoring, which entails both ground deformation measurement and the analysis of any other changes along time (e.g., land use, vegetation cover). The third class groups methods for landslide hazard analysis and forecasting. The aim of this paper is to give an overview on the applications of remote-sensing techniques for the three categories of landslide investigations, focusing on the achievements of the last decade, being that previous studies have already been exhaustively reviewed in the existing literature. At the end of the paper, a new classification of remote-sensing techniques that may be pertinently adopted for investigating specific typologies of soil and rock slope failures is proposed

Soil respiration in a northeastern US temperate forest: a 22‐year synthesis

To better understand how forest management, phenology, vegetation type, and actual and simulated climatic change affect seasonal and inter‐annual variations in soil respiration (Rs), we analyzed more than 100,000 individual measurements of soil respiration from 23 studies conducted over 22 years at the Harvard Forest in Petersham, Massachusetts, USA. We also used 24 site‐years of eddy‐covariance measurements from two Harvard Forest sites to examine the relationship between soil and ecosystem respiration (Re). Rs was highly variable at all spatial (respiration collar to forest stand) and temporal (minutes to years) scales of measurement. The response of Rs to experimental manipulations mimicking aspects of global change or aimed at partitioning Rs into component fluxes ranged from −70% to +52%. The response appears to arise from variations in substrate availability induced by changes in the size of soil C pools and of belowground C fluxes or in environmental conditions. In some cases (e.g., logging, warming), the effect of experimental manipulations on Rs was transient, but in other cases the time series were not long enough to rule out long‐term changes in respiration rates. Inter‐annual variations in weather and phenology induced variation among annual Rs estimates of a magnitude similar to that of other drivers of global change (i.e., invasive insects, forest management practices, N deposition). At both eddy‐covariance sites, aboveground respiration dominated Re early in the growing season, whereas belowground respiration dominated later. Unusual aboveground respiration patterns—high apparent rates of respiration during winter and very low rates in mid‐to‐late summer—at the Environmental Measurement Site suggest either bias in Rs and Re estimates caused by differences in the spatial scale of processes influencing fluxes, or that additional research on the hard‐to‐measure fluxes (e.g., wintertime Rs, unaccounted losses of CO2 from eddy covariance sites), daytime and nighttime canopy respiration and its impacts on estimates of Re, and independent measurements of flux partitioning (e.g., aboveground plant respiration, isotopic partitioning) may yield insight into the unusually high and low fluxes. Overall, however, this data‐rich analysis identifies important seasonal and experimental variations in Rs and Re and in the partitioning of Re above‐ vs. belowground

Soil respiration in a northeastern US temperate forest: a 22‐year synthesis

To better understand how forest management, phenology, vegetation type, and actual and simulated climatic change affect seasonal and inter‐annual variations in soil respiration (Rs), we analyzed more than 100,000 individual measurements of soil respiration from 23 studies conducted over 22 years at the Harvard Forest in Petersham, Massachusetts, USA. We also used 24 site‐years of eddy‐covariance measurements from two Harvard Forest sites to examine the relationship between soil and ecosystem respiration (Re). Rs was highly variable at all spatial (respiration collar to forest stand) and temporal (minutes to years) scales of measurement. The response of Rs to experimental manipulations mimicking aspects of global change or aimed at partitioning Rs into component fluxes ranged from −70% to +52%. The response appears to arise from variations in substrate availability induced by changes in the size of soil C pools and of belowground C fluxes or in environmental conditions. In some cases (e.g., logging, warming), the effect of experimental manipulations on Rs was transient, but in other cases the time series were not long enough to rule out long‐term changes in respiration rates. Inter‐annual variations in weather and phenology induced variation among annual Rs estimates of a magnitude similar to that of other drivers of global change (i.e., invasive insects, forest management practices, N deposition). At both eddy‐covariance sites, aboveground respiration dominated Re early in the growing season, whereas belowground respiration dominated later. Unusual aboveground respiration patterns—high apparent rates of respiration during winter and very low rates in mid‐to‐late summer—at the Environmental Measurement Site suggest either bias in Rs and Re estimates caused by differences in the spatial scale of processes influencing fluxes, or that additional research on the hard‐to‐measure fluxes (e.g., wintertime Rs, unaccounted losses of CO2 from eddy covariance sites), daytime and nighttime canopy respiration and its impacts on estimates of Re, and independent measurements of flux partitioning (e.g., aboveground plant respiration, isotopic partitioning) may yield insight into the unusually high and low fluxes. Overall, however, this data‐rich analysis identifies important seasonal and experimental variations in Rs and Re and in the partitioning of Re above‐ vs. belowground

The transcriptional response of soil bacteria to long-term warming and short-term seasonal fluctuations in a terrestrial forest

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Chowdhury, P. R., Golas, S. M., Alteio, L., Stevens, J. T. E., Billings, A. F., Blanchard, J. L., Melillo, J. M., & DeAngelis, K. M. The transcriptional response of soil bacteria to long-term warming and short-term seasonal fluctuations in a terrestrial forest. Frontiers in Microbiology, 12, (2021): 666558, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2021.666558.Terrestrial ecosystems are an important carbon store, and this carbon is vulnerable to microbial degradation with climate warming. After 30 years of experimental warming, carbon stocks in a temperate mixed deciduous forest were observed to be reduced by 30% in the heated plots relative to the controls. In addition, soil respiration was seasonal, as was the warming treatment effect. We therefore hypothesized that long-term warming will have higher expressions of genes related to carbohydrate and lipid metabolism due to increased utilization of recalcitrant carbon pools compared to controls. Because of the seasonal effect of soil respiration and the warming treatment, we further hypothesized that these patterns will be seasonal. We used RNA sequencing to show how the microbial community responds to long-term warming (~30 years) in Harvard Forest, MA. Total RNA was extracted from mineral and organic soil types from two treatment plots (+5°C heated and ambient control), at two time points (June and October) and sequenced using Illumina NextSeq technology. Treatment had a larger effect size on KEGG annotated transcripts than on CAZymes, while soil types more strongly affected CAZymes than KEGG annotated transcripts, though effect sizes overall were small. Although, warming showed a small effect on overall CAZymes expression, several carbohydrate-associated enzymes showed increased expression in heated soils (~68% of all differentially expressed transcripts). Further, exploratory analysis using an unconstrained method showed increased abundances of enzymes related to polysaccharide and lipid metabolism and decomposition in heated soils. Compared to long-term warming, we detected a relatively small effect of seasonal variation on community gene expression. Together, these results indicate that the higher carbohydrate degrading potential of bacteria in heated plots can possibly accelerate a self-reinforcing carbon cycle-temperature feedback in a warming climate.Funding for this study was provided by the Department of Energy Terrestrial Ecosystem Sciences program under contract number DE-SC0010740. Sites for sample collection were maintained with funding in part from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research (DEB 1237491) and the NSF Long-Term Research in Environmental Biology (DEB 1456528) programs

Ret receptor tyrosine kinase sustains proliferation and tissue maturation in intestinal epithelia

Expression of the Ret receptor tyrosine kinase is a defining feature of enteric neurons. Its importance is underscored by the effects of its mutation in Hirschsprung disease, leading to absence of gut innervation and severe gastrointestinal symptoms. We report a new and physiologically significant site of Ret expression in the intestine: the intestinal epithelium. Experiments in Drosophila indicate that Ret is expressed both by enteric neurons and adult intestinal epithelial progenitors, which require Ret to sustain their proliferation. Mechanistically, Ret is engaged in a positive feedback loop with Wnt/Wingless signalling, modulated by Src and Fak kinases. We find that Ret is also expressed by the developing intestinal epithelium of mice, where its expression is maintained into the adult stage in a subset of enteroendocrine/enterochromaffin cells. Mouse organoid experiments point to an intrinsic role for Ret in promoting epithelial maturation and regulating Wnt signalling. Our findings reveal evolutionary conservation of the positive Ret/Wnt signalling feedback in both developmental and homeostatic contexts. They also suggest an epithelial contribution to Ret loss-of-function disorders such as Hirschsprung disease.Peer reviewe